How Will Trump Change NATO?

In February 2022, a large-scale military conflict began in Ukraine, prompting concerns about its impact on regional security and the NATO alliance shared by Ukraine's neighboring countries. Russia receives significant support from countries like China, Iran, and North Korea, which provide advanced technology. As this global conflict unfolds in Ukraine, new technologies are being introduced faster than ever before. Thus, it needs a fundamental change. However, only one leader has been consistently vocal about it: Donald Trump. So, how will Donald Trump change NATO?

Former U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized NATO and hinted at a potential departure, raising concerns about the alliance's future if he is reelected. However, defense experts and former Trump officials suggest that Trump is unlikely to formally quit NATO. Instead, he may push for a significant restructuring, requiring European countries to drastically increase defense spending and assume more military responsibilities. Trump's dissatisfaction stems from what he perceives as an unfair burden on the U.S., which contributes 68% of NATO's defense budget.

Proposals from Trump-aligned experts include a "two-tier NATO" system, where nations failing to meet the 2% GDP defense spending target lose U.S. security guarantees and shift most military responsibilities, including infantry and logistics, to European nations. Some even advocate negotiating limits on NATO expansion, particularly concerning Ukraine and Georgia, to end the ongoing Ukraine conflict. Trump's critics argue that such policies could undermine NATO's cohesion and embolden adversaries like Russia.

Moreover, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump said in a recent interview he would "absolutely" consider leaving NATO if allies didn't "pay their bills." "They have to pay their bills," Trump told NBC's "Meet the Press," saying he would "absolutely" consider taking the United States out of the alliance unless members are "treating us fairly."

In truth, Trump is unable to exit the alliance at his will. Congress incorporated a clause in the National Defense Authorization Act for 2024 that prevents a president from withdrawing from the North Atlantic Treaty without Congressional approval. The Trump administration might argue that this provision infringes upon the constitutional powers of the president. However, it would be problematic for Trump to disregard the restriction, especially since it was co-sponsored by Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA) along with Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL), who is Trump's choice for Secretary of State.

Although security experts, especially in Europe, criticized Trump for being harsh on allies, Trump's push for NATO revitalization worked.

NATO countries have significantly increased defense spending in recent years, driven by Russia's actions and pressure from Donald Trump during his presidency. In 2024, 23 member nations, including Norway, are expected to meet the 2% GDP target for defense spending, starkly contrasting to just three countries a decade ago. Norway's decision to increase its defense budget was influenced by Trump's re-election prospects and a desire to avoid criticism at NATO summits. Despite this progress, Trump may continue to push allies for greater contributions, as defense spending remains a domestic political issue in the U.S.

European nations are enhancing their military capabilities, with notable increases from Poland and Estonia. However, some experts doubt Europe's ability to replace U.S. military support due to funding and political constraints. While Trump's influence might shift NATO dynamics, experts believe he would face resistance from Congress and the U.S. military if he attempted to withdraw the U.S. from the alliance.

Also, the U.S. focus on countering China may reduce its involvement in Europe, prompting Europe to take greater responsibility for its defense. However, challenges remain, including Russia's potential to rebuild its military more quickly than expected, particularly with possible Chinese military support post-Ukraine conflict.

In late November, President-elect Donald Trump met with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in Palm Beach, Florida, to discuss global security issues. This meeting was Rutte's first with Trump since his election. Rutte expressed optimism about working with Trump, who has previously criticized NATO allies for their defense spending, suggesting some do not contribute enough. The discussions also included Trump's national security adviser pick, U.S. Rep. Michael Waltz, and other members of the national security team. Such optimism is a good thing for the future of the alliance.

After all, military spending in EU countries has increased significantly in recent years. In 2023, EU countries invested €279 billion, which is the highest amount ever recorded by the European Defence Agency since its establishment in 2004. This represents a 10% increase from 2022. The trend of rising defense spending started in 2014 after Russia invaded Crimea.

Last year, the countries that spent the most on defense were all near Russia: Poland spent 3.3% of its GDP on defense, followed by Estonia at 3.0% and Latvia at 2.9%. Jiří Šedivý, the head of the European Defence Agency, said that much of this investment goes into buying ready-made equipment from outside the EU. He pointed out the need to strengthen the EU's military production capabilities.

In 2024, EU military investment is expected to hit a new record. Defense spending increased in 22 of the EU's 27 member states, with 11 of them seeing at least a 10% rise. Over 80% of defense investments, or €61 billion, went to new defense items like air defense systems, combat aircraft, and battle tanks. This year, EU defense spending is likely to reach €326 billion, which is about 1.9% of the EU's GDP and just below the 2% guideline set by NATO.

However, besides Trump, even NATO's new secretary general, Mark Rutte, said that "2% is not enough" for long-term security. He stated, "We can defend ourselves right now, and nobody should try to attack us. But I want that to stay the same in 4 or 5 years," after the NATO foreign ministers meeting in Brussels.

The last important thing to mention. In July, U.S. President Joe Biden and NATO leaders agreed on a major change in how the alliance would respond to a Russian attack. NATO plans to have up to 300,000 troops ready to move to its eastern borders within 30 days if necessary. These plans specify which allies would respond to an attack from the Arctic and Baltic Sea to the Atlantic and east to the Black Sea.

In sum, Trump's "threat" to leave NATO has worked in favor of the organization, especially in European security, which saw the most significant bump in decades in financial and military means. And so far, it is highly unlikely that the U.S. will leave NATO.