Late in January 2025, the eastern Congolese rebel movement M23 began a new offensive into the Democratic Republic of Congo's easternmost provinces of North and South Kivu, bordering Rwanda itself, Uganda, and Burundi.  M23 is widely said to be supported by Rwanda, although Kigali vigorously denies this to be the case, calling M23 as a uniquely Congolese movement.

Since the onset of this offensive, M23 has succeeded in taking control of the city of Goma, parts of North Kivu, more or less the entire periphery of Lake Kivu, and then the city of Bukavu on Lake Kivu's southern shores. 

Although their control over these territories appears to be shaky and volatile, with reports occasionally circulating of attacks against M23 and Rwandan Defence Force units by Congolese army units and the local civilian “Wazalendo” (a Swahili term meaning “patriot”) militia units supporting them, and even ambush attacks targeting senior M23 personnel, M23 still appears to be maintaining its control over these territories, and gradually extending its reach southwest toward the Katanga region that forms the heart of southern DRC.  The Katanga region is considered the DRC's principal breadbasket of rare earth minerals, gold, diamonds, and other precious commodities.

This region also happens to be the main location that will be connected by the US-funded Lobito Railway Corridor, currently undergoing expansion from its original Chinese infrastructure to provide expanded rail links between Katanga and the port of Lobito on Angola's Atlantic coast.  Many observers and analysts consider it no coincidence either that Katanga separatist voices long at odds with the DRC government in Kinshasa have been becoming more vocal once again, after several years of relative quiet.  There have even been reports of these separatist movements being infiltrated by "Rwandan agents", ostensibly working to support these organizations and in effect mobilize local Katanga region sentiment against Kinshasa in Rwanda's own favour, in order to extend its control eventually over the south and southeast of the DRC.

The M23 organization has just succeeded in taking control of Kamanyola, a DRC city situated on the Rusizi river plain directly west of the shared border between Rwanda, the DRC, and Burundi.

Allied with the DRC government in Kinshasa, Burundi has deployed a significant number of soldiers into the provinces of North and South Kivu.  As M23 has continued to expand its reach into DRC territory, Burundian president Evariste Ndayishimiye has stated on several occasions in no uncertain terms over the last few days that his government is opposed to what it describes as Rwanda's "expansionist agenda" in the region, and that it is prepared to even go so far as launch a direct attack on Kigali from Burundian territory if it deems such action to be necessary.

With M23 troops now reportedly advancing south from Kamanyola toward Uvira, a strategically critical city in the DRC on the northeastern shores of Lake Tanganyika directly across from Bujumbura in Burundi, local and regional media outlets are currently coming to a consensus that the DRC-M23 conflict may now be arriving at a critical turning point, with one question now outstanding: with M23 units extending their reach along Burundi's western border with the DRC - and thus posing a growing security threat to Burundi - how will the Burundian armed forces react?

Reports of looting by disgruntled, chronically underpaid FARDC soldiers have been coming out of Uvira, along with other reports indicating that the local Wazalendo militias have actually succeeding without their FARDC counterparts in defending Uvira against an M23 takeover.  At least for now.  

Recently a former bodyguard to Rwandan President Paul Kagame, Noble Marara, now living in exile in the UK, released an audio message in the Kinyarwanda language in which he claimed that Paul Kagame has been planning to conduct the present-day M23 offensive into DRC territory for a long time – and that neutralizing Burundi as a power in the Great Lakes region is one of the principal steps he plans to take in order to fulfil his alleged expansionist plans.  The veracity of these claims cannot be independently verified.  Several Congolese media outlets have seized on this issue, analysed the message in-depth, and are now calling on Burundi's government to take urgent steps to attack and drive M23 forces out of the region.

Thus far there have been no signs of any significant movements by Burundian troops toward Uvira, but the situation remains very tense, with Burundian forces apparently monitoring and assessing the situation on the ground very closely.

With Rwanda-allied Ugandan forces reportedly already moving into the Bunia area of North Kivu, concerns are becoming more widespread across the region that any large-scale offensive by Burundi against M23 forces, or especially against Kigali directly - could spark a wider conflict across the Great Lakes region